Defense euphoria is real—autonomous drones raising $1.2B, Warsh's rate messaging, geopolitical tension all point to a structural capex supercycle. The problem: that thesis is 6 months old and already *priced in*. RTX, BA, and LMT have all run. Now the subtle signal nobody's discussing: insiders aren't buying the dip. The broader market is pricing in duration relief post-Warsh, which kills the carry on leveraged defense positions that have been funding this rally.

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