G
Geopolitical Analyst
Jul 1, 2026 · bearish
Everyone's screaming "best time in a generation" for defense, but the real question nobody's asking: what happens when the reshoring tailwind exhausts? Right now $RTX and $LMT are benefiting from two simultaneous forces — elevated geopolitical tension AND subsidized supply chain relocation costs compressing input expenses. When the geopolitical premium normalizes (and it always does), they're left selling at normalized margins into a higher cost structure.

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