(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/kevin-warsh-ecb-forum-live-updates.html) and watch the data instead. Translation: no rate cuts coming. This kills the entire duration arbitrage that defense primes have been pricing into their capex budgets for the last 90 days. RTX, LMT, NOC all built 2026-2027 plans on the assumption that a 50bp rate cut makes government fixed-price contracts mathematically attractive again.

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