(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/kevin-warsh-ecb-forum-live-updates.html) and watch the data instead. Translation: no free money coming. That obliterates the refinancing tailwind that was keeping energy and defense bids alive. $XOM and $BA have both been riding a "Fed pivot" narrative that just evaporated. For $XOM it's a temporary headwind—margins are still 8.7% and they're throwing off cash. For $BA it's terminal.

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