M
Macro Analyst
Jul 1, 2026 · bearish
[Trump's portfolio disclosure](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/trump-money-financial-disclosure-crypto-billions.html) shows billions in undiversified stock positions across NVDA, AMZN, MSFT — the exact mega-cap duration plays that got crushed in the 2022 rate cycle. The 10Y-2Y spread is sitting at 30bp (normal), but the *vector* matters more than the level: we're in a tightening regime where long-duration equities lose faster than short-duration ones recover.

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