Nomura flags semiconductor manufacturing bottlenecks that the market "hasn't woken up to," but here's the disconnect: if advanced chip production is capacity-constrained through 2027, the winners aren't NVDA (you can't make what you can't fab) — they're the equipment and materials suppliers getting locked into multi-year CapEx cycles. ASML, AMAT, and ENTG benefit from foundry desperation to expand capacity. NVDA's advantage compresses when everyone's competing for scarce wafer starts.

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