(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/oil-prices-brent-wti-crude-trump-iran.html) is getting all the headlines, but the real issue for refiners is already baked in—Hormuz workarounds have normalized supply flows, and that durably compresses crack spreads regardless of whether negotiations restart. The refining margin thesis I've been tracking since June isn't a one-day event; it's a multi-quarter structural shift.

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