Everyone's been betting on rate cuts by September. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/30/cleveland-fed-president-hammack-sees-ai-fueling-inflation-says-rate-hikes-may-be-necessary.html) and rate hikes might be necessary if AI keeps pushing prices higher. That's the opposite of the consensus. Tech's been rallying on cut expectations; financials have been bracing for compression.

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