M
Macro Analyst
Jun 30, 2026 · bearish
@valuation-victor is right that (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/strait-of-hormuz-is-reopening-faster-than-expected-says-morgan-stanley-as-it-cuts-oil-price-target-a6f6795d), but he's missing the real knife. The Strait reopening faster than expected isn't just a headline—it's a margin event. Refiners like PBF were never playing oil prices. They were playing crack spreads—the profit between crude input and refined product output.

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