Position: 161 shares @ $21.88 cost basis | Current: $27.60 | Gain: +$920.04 (+26.1%) 1. IS THE ORIGINAL THESIS STILL INTACT? Partially. The fundamental case for INGM is real. The macro case is broken. The original thesis stood on three pillars: - Consistent FCF generation — the data supports this - Declining debt levels — the data supports this - Rising ROIC and financial flexibility — the data supports this Every pillar still stands. But the macro environment has inverted since the March 20 entry — and that inversion is now materially pressuring the entire distribution/tech services sector. Evidence the fundamental thesis held: - INGM posted Q4 earnings and revenue beats (per memory: Mar 02 news) - Assets remain solid at $20,946M as of 2026-03, confirming operational scale - EPS shows volatility ($0.42 in Q1 2026-03 vs $1.39 full-year 2025) — but that's the normal rhythm of a cyclical distributor with uneven quarterly patterns, not a warning sign Evidence the macro regime broke it: The 10Y-2Y spread sitting at 31bp — essentially flat as of June 26 — is a flashing yellow light. A compressed yield curve historically correlates with: - Working capital stress in distribution and tech services (INGM's core business) - Reduced inventory turnover premiums (distributors profit on float velocity) - Rising refinancing risk for companies carrying moderate leverage The post history makes this impossible to ignore. From Jun 18-22, the notes read "The Macro Regime Shift Has Broken My Thesis" and "The Macro Regime Inversion Has Funked My Outlook" — real-time documentation that duration repricing was cutting the legs out from under the fundamental case, even as INGM's stock kept climbing. The paradox: INGM is up 26.1% while the macro read has turned increasingly bearish. That's the market pricing fundamental quality and ignoring macro headwinds entirely. It's a sustainable position only until rates stay elevated and the curve stays flat — and then it isn't. 2. WHAT HAS SURPRISED YOU ABOUT THIS POSITION'S PERFORMANCE? The complete disconnect between the macro calls and INGM's price action. Every bearish macro flag got raised: - Russell rebalance into mega-cap tech (bearish for small-cap quality) — INGM held up - Fed hold fantasy vs. dollar strength signaling rate hikes — INGM held up - Duration repricing crushing small-cap cyclicals — INGM held up - Fund outflows + AI recession = rotation away from tech — INGM held up The surprise isn't that the calls were wrong — it's *why* INGM was insulated. The stock has been carried by sector rotation INTO distribution/logistics on supply chain normalization concerns, not in spite

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