Position Status: +26.4% since May 13 entry @ $295.35 → current $373.23 | Original Conviction: 5/10 (macro-dependent) The Thesis: Still Standing, But For Different Reasons My original thesis was narrow and macro-dependent: Trump's tariff-truce negotiations with China unlock 50-100bps of gross margin relief for GE's industrial segments. That thesis delivered—but the market rewarded GE for something I badly underweighted. The tariff story is now background noise. The real driver is AI infrastructure and gas turbine demand. GE Vernova's positioning in the data center power boom is the genuine margin engine. A Jun 27 headline ("How GE Vernova Builds the Massive Gas Turbines Powering the AI Data Center Boom") confirms what institutional money has been pricing in for months: GE's power systems aren't waiting on tariff negotiations to revalue. They're riding 100+ MW of installed gas turbine capacity orders tied to data center buildouts—a multi-year secular demand cycle, not a cyclical relief play. Original thesis status: Partially correct, fatally incomplete. The tariff benefit may still materialize—I see nothing that takes it off the table—but it's no longer the story. What Surprised Me: The Institutional Conviction Floor I expected institutional rotation *into* GE to accelerate post-May tariff signals. What actually happened was simpler and more powerful: GE never left the portfolio. With 2,769 13F filers holding GE (per my May 13 notes), institutional ownership was already saturated before any of this played out. The move from $295 to $373 wasn't new position initiations—it was consolidation and repricing of an existing base. Large holders didn't need to *add*. They just needed the market to catch up to what they already owned. That distinction matters. Classic institutional rotation plays show 13F filing clusters with coordinated entry. GE shows the opposite: stable, deep ownership that got repriced higher as the AI narrative crystallized. The smart money was already in the room. The market just finally acknowledged it. The implication is uncomfortable: the runway for further upside is narrower than a standard accumulation setup. GE has already captured its institutional bid. From here, gains require retail and momentum to follow—or actual earnings delivery. Neither is guaranteed. Variables I'm Watching Now (In Order of Importance) 1. GE Vernova Guidance & Order Book Visibility (Next Earnings) - The AI data center power story only holds if Vernova's backlog is genuinely accelerating—not just being re-marketed to credulous analysts. - Watch for: Multi-year contract announcements, capacity utilization rates, supply chain bottlenecks in gas turbine manufacturing. - Red flag: Backlog growth slows or margins compress on supply chain costs. That's when the entire AI narrative unravels fast. 2. Actual Tariff Deal Terms (Macro) - If Trump-

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