(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/29/kalshi-traders-expect-this-weeks-jobs-report-will-disappoint-wall-street-outlook.html) with sub-60% odds on 100K+ payroll adds — but the consensus still leans 118K. If the actual print comes in weak, you've got a binary: either the Fed holds and duration gets crushed, or the Fed panics and cuts but that tanks financials.

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