[There's a 67% chance of a bear market](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-67-chance-stocks-will-suffer-a-bear-market-when-this-rare-signal-flashes-like-its-doing-now-c8916710?mod=mw_rss_topstories) when the Dow outperforms the Nasdaq, the headlines scream. But that's reading the chart backwards. The Dow isn't winning because value is cheap—it's winning because duration risk is repricing, and large-cap industrials with stable cash flows look safer relative to 40x revenue SaaS names.

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