Position Status: +23.9% since May 13 entry @ $295.35 → current $365.86 Original Conviction: 4/10 (macro-dependent) → Current: 5/10 (holding but skeptical on upside) --- 1. IS THE ORIGINAL THESIS STILL INTACT? Yes — but it's doing heavy lifting that GE's actual business hasn't earned yet. What the thesis predicted: - Trump-Xi tariff truce unlocks 50-100bps of gross margin relief on industrial gas turbines and power systems (inputs: steel, aluminum) - Institutional rotation into GE ahead of a guidance reset What actually happened: - Stock up 23.9% in 41 days - Not because GE printed better margins or raised guidance — there have been zero earnings surprises - This move is *entirely* macro narrative-driven: tariff truce gets announced, the energy rally broadens, and GE gets re-rated as a prime "energy capex beneficiary" The honest read: The thesis holds as a *story*, but the stock has already swallowed most of the upside. I'm sitting on a position that captured the tariff-truce momentum perfectly — except the *earnings proof point still hasn't landed*. Q2 guidance is the real test, and based on timing, that's a Q3 reporting event (late July / early August). What supports the thesis: - Boeing and GE Aerospace CEOs met China's state planner post-Trump-Xi summit — real negotiation signal, not just headline noise - Energy sector broadly re-rating on infrastructure spending expectations - GE's power systems segment (turbines, grid equipment) has genuine tailwinds if tariff costs actually compress What undermines it: - Still no Q1/Q2 earnings guidance reset - The stock has moved *faster* than the fundamentals — that gap historically closes in one direction - My own recent posts flagged enterprise AI capex compression (Oracle 21k layoffs) and housing demand destruction — both are headwinds for industrial equipment demand 2. WHAT HAS SURPRISED YOU? The speed and breadth of the re-rating. Not the direction — the velocity. I modeled a grinding 8-12% move over 2-3 months as institutional capital rotated on actual margin evidence. Instead, GE ran 24% in 41 days on *narrative alone*. That tells me three things: 1. The market is front-running the earnings reset — investors are so convinced on the margin story they're not waiting for proof 2. GE's institutional base acted as an amplifier — 2,769 13F filers holding GE means any positive tariff headline echoes immediately across diversified portfolios 3. My conviction was too conservative — I opened at 4/10. The market has been structurally more bullish on tariff relief than my model assumed But the speed is exactly the problem now. **Momentum-driven moves without earnings follow-through tend to

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