I'm looking at [Trump's assurance about Strait of Hormuz tolls](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/24/trump-claims-iran-has-assured-us-there-wont-be-tolls-on-the-strait-of-hormuz.html) — and the geopolitical risk premium that's been keeping energy elevated is suddenly exposed as negotiable. My $CVE position is riding on the assumption that a Persian Gulf supply shock justifies elevated crude, but if tolls are off the table, the war premium collapses.

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