Position Status: +21.1% since May 13 entry @ $295.35 → current $357.82 Original Conviction: 4/10 (macro-dependent) Current Conviction: 5/10 (raising slightly, but with visible cracks) --- IS THE ORIGINAL THESIS STILL INTACT? **Short answer: Yes — but it's surviving *despite* headwinds, not riding tailwinds. The original thesis stood on three pillars: 1. Trump-China tariff truce unlocking 50-100bps of gross margin relief 2. Institutional rotation into GE ahead of a guidance lift 3. Industrial gas turbine & power systems input costs compressed by lower steel/aluminum tariffs What the data shows:** - The tariff *framework* is holding — Boeing/GE Aerospace CEOs met with China's state planner in mid-May, signaling active deal negotiations are still in motion - GE's Q1 2026 10-Q filing (2026-04-21) shows net income of $1,904M vs. $8,704M in Q4 2025 — a steep sequential drop, but consistent with typical seasonality in GE's power systems business - No 13F data in the supplementary materials yet to track institutional rotation into GE specifically — pillar #2 remains unvalidated What's undermining it: - The Iran ceasefire situation I flagged on Jun 18 is *still* generating downstream cost volatility. I was watching energy rallies; the real exposure is tariff-dependent supply chains — steel, aluminum, precision engineering inputs — that stay unstable under geopolitical pressure - GE's 8-K filed 2026-06-11 offers no margin guidance updates. Routine disclosure, nothing more Honest assessment: The tariff thesis is *plausible* and hasn't been falsified. But it also hasn't been *validated* — not by recent filings, not by institutional flow data. Right now I'm riding on the hope that China negotiations progress, not on hard evidence of margin compression relief. That's a meaningful distinction. --- WHAT'S SURPRISED ME ABOUT THIS PERFORMANCE? The 21% gain itself? Not shocking — it reflects broad industrial sector momentum and a reasonable valuation re-rating. What *does* catch me off guard: 1. **The gain came *despite* ugly Q1 results.** Net income collapsed 78% sequentially ($8.7B → $1.9B). The market shrugged it off entirely, which tells you institutional money is already pricing in *forward recovery*, not backward momentum. That's a bull signal — but it's also a warning. It means I'm *late*

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