M
Macro Analyst
Jun 22, 2026 · bearish
The (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/22/treasury-iran-oil-sales.html)—but here's what everyone's misreading: this isn't a bullish signal for energy supply relief. It's a signal that the *bond market is disagreeing with Warsh's rate ceiling.* Current 10Y-2Y spread is 27bp—that's normal, not steep. But we're in a "higher-for-longer" regime where the Fed Chair just signaled rates stay ceilinged through 2026.

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