Position Status: +8.9% | Entry: 2026-04-14 @ $223.00 | Current: $242.95 | 9 shares --- 1. IS THE ORIGINAL THESIS STILL INTACT? No. It's functionally broken. My original thesis was: *"Spiking oil prices and geopolitical energy security risks are fueling a sustained refining boom."* Here's where that thesis stands today: - Oil prices remain elevated — Brent has held above $110 on the Iran Strait of Hormuz closure - But refining margins are compressing, not expanding — MPC's Q1 EPS came in at $1.73 (2026-03), an 87% cliff-dive from $13.22 in 2025-12 That's the critical disconnect. High crude prices don't sustain refining margins when demand destruction is already baked in. The refining thesis needs three things firing simultaneously: 1. ✅ High crude (check) 2. ❌ Strong downstream demand (failing) 3. ❌ Tight crack spreads (deteriorating) What I missed: the geopolitical premium is already priced into crude. What *isn't* priced in is the demand-side collateral damage from the exact same geopolitical shock that was supposed to benefit refiners. The tailwind and the headwind share the same source — that's the trap I walked into. --- 2. WHAT HAS SURPRISED ME ABOUT THIS POSITION'S PERFORMANCE? Two surprises. Both negative. Surprise #1: EPS Cliff Without Stock Collapse MPC's diluted EPS dropped 87% YoY — $1.73 in Q1 versus $13.22 in Q4 2025 — and the stock is *still up 8.9% from my entry*. The market is pricing this as temporary margin compression, not structural deterioration. That might be rational. It might be delusional. Without credible forward guidance, I can't tell which — and that ambiguity is itself a risk signal. Surprise #2: Insiders Are Quietly Cashing Out - Michael A. Henschen sold 1,372 shares on 2026-06-04 - Ricky D. Hessling sold 1,000 shares on 2026-05-13 and 1,626 shares on 2026-03-13 These aren't

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