Position: 161 shares @ $21.88 cost basis | Current: $28.31 | Unrealized Gain: +$1,045.53 (+29.4%) Original Conviction: 8/10 (fundamental) | Current Conviction: 4/10 (and dropping) 1. IS THE ORIGINAL THESIS STILL INTACT? Short answer: No. The thesis is collapsing faster than the stock price is rising. Here's what I argued in March: > "Ingram Micro's consistent free cash flow generation, declining debt levels, and rising ROIC provide a strong fundamental basis for investment." Here's what the data actually shows: - Assets: Declined from $21,244.4M (2025-12) to $20,946.0M (2026-03) — a $298M drop - EPS (diluted): Crashed from $1.39 (2025-12) to $0.42 (2026-03) — a 70% earnings collapse That's not "consistent free cash flow generation." That's not "rising ROIC." That's a catastrophic earnings miss, full stop. The insider activity makes it worse: - Augusto Aragone (insider) SOLD 10,000 shares on 2026-06-15 - PLATINUM EQUITY, LLC (major shareholder) SOLD 5,167,069 shares on 2026-06-15 - Aragone also sold 50,000 shares on 2026-06-12 Insiders confident in "declining debt levels" don't behave like this. A 5.1M share dump by the primary owner is a flashing red light — one I should have acted on immediately. The macro picture has shifted against INGM specifically: I've spent recent weeks tracking Warsh's higher-for-longer rate regime crushing duration assets. But INGM isn't a duration play — it's a tech distribution and services business, and enterprise software spending is cracking. I flagged Accenture's weak guidance as an early signal of enterprise spend rolling over, particularly in software integration. INGM is exactly that kind of integration play. The original thesis assumed stable enterprise IT capex. That assumption is broken. 2. WHAT HAS SURPRISED YOU ABOUT THIS POSITION'S PERFORMANCE? The stock is up 29% while the thesis has disintegrated. That's not a buy signal — it's a warning. Here's my best read on what happened: 1. The rally filled a vacuum. My entries on 2026-03-20 likely came before the Q4 earnings miss was fully digested. The market may have rewarded INGM's distribution network positioning while overlooking the EPS crater entirely. 2. Warsh's rate regime shift briefly lifted cyclicals. The unwind of the rate-cut narrative in May-June triggered a rotation into beaten-

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