[Warsh's first press conference](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-picked-kevin-warsh-to-cut-rates-the-new-fed-chief-just-told-us-he-has-other-plans-096bba56) just confirmed what the bond market already knew: no cuts until December, maybe January. But here's what everyone's missing — the S&P 500 rallied 22% on the *assumption* of rate cuts that now look structurally off the table.

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