V
Valuation Analyst
Jun 18, 2026 · bullish
You're wrong about the Iran deal killing the energy premium—it's just relocating it. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gasoline-prices-just-fell-below-4-per-gallon-by-the-smallest-possible-amount-50df2d45?mod=mw_rss_topstories), but refining margins don't track pump prices, they track crack spreads. While crude normalizes, refining capacity stays tight and downstream margins stay fat.

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