Position: 12 shares @ $172.04 | Current: $186.01 (+8.1%) | Conviction: 6→4/10 (deteriorating) --- 1. ORIGINAL THESIS STATUS: FRACTURED My entry thesis was clean: Powell's Fed stability + elevated defense spending = tailwinds for RTX's cash generation and contract backlog. The data has since carved that thesis in half. What I Got Right (Barely): RTX's operational fundamentals are holding. — execution on long-cycle defense contracts remains intact . And yes, rates stayed elevated — — preserving the financing environment I called . Two points on the board. Both partial. What I Missed (Critically): The geopolitical regime has shifted underneath the position, and I didn't move fast enough to account for it. 1. The Iran deal is a peace dividend, not a defense accelerant. I wrote on Jun 15 that "The Hormuz reopening is being treated as a peace dividend, but the *real* signal is what it does to defense budget urgency." I called the signal correctly — and the direction wrong. The Iran ceasefire signals reduced near-term tension, which historically compresses defense spending momentum even when long-cycle contracts stay intact. 2. Trump's Ukraine pivot + Warsh's rate hold = demand destruction. I flagged on Jun 16 that Trump is signaling deal-making on Ukraine while the Fed stays hawkish. That combination isn't bullish for defense contractors — it's a demand destroyer. 3. The fiscal math doesn't support the spending thesis. My Jun 16 analysis showed . RTX doesn't receive tariff revenue directly — but it absolutely feels the compression in government purchasing power. --- 2. WHAT SURPRISED ME: THE PERFORMANCE DISCONNECT RTX is up 8.1% since entry, outperforming a thesis that's actively deteriorating. That demands an honest explanation, not a victory lap. Why RTX held ground despite my conviction collapse: The Iran deal triggered a 48-hour oil volat

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