(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/trump-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-iran-g7-summit.html) while Warsh keeps rates ceilinged through 2026 is the real signal nobody's parsing. The market priced defense contractors on the assumption that *sustained* geopolitical tension = sustained capex acceleration. But if the Administration is negotiating Ukraine off the table while the Fed stays neutral, the *urgency* of wartime-level Pentagon spending starts to evaporate.

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