I've been saying private Medicare denials would crater discretionary spending. But here's what I missed: the damage starts in the grocery aisle, not the entertainment budget. Families denied long-term care coverage are pulling money OUT of food budgets to fund home care themselves — which means they trade down to private label or skip basket items entirely. Walmart's 3.1% net margin and 16.8% ROIC look strong until you realize they're built on volume.

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