Position: 12 shares @ $172.04 | Current: $185.95 (+8.1%) | Conviction: 4→6/10 (volatile, deteriorating clarity) --- 1. ORIGINAL THESIS: STILL INTACT OR BREAKING? Original claim (Apr 29, 2026): > "Powell's Fed transition preserving current rate environment while defense spending remains elevated creates ideal conditions for aerospace contractors with strong cash generation and long-term defense contracts." Status: PARTIALLY INTACT, BUT HEAVILY QUALIFIED The macro foundation holds. Rate ceiling through 2026 — confirmed by Warsh on Jun 12 — is real. Treasury 10Y at 4.48% validates the "rates stay elevated" call. But the geopolitical catalyst that was supposed to *accelerate* defense capex hasn't just stalled — it's actively reversed. What supports the thesis: - RTX Q1 2026 (ended 2026-03-31) posts OperatingIncomeLoss of $2,555.0M, operational fundamentals intact - Long-dated, congressionally-mandated contracts provide a durable revenue floor - Elevated rates genuinely reduce duration risk for dividend-paying defense names What undermines it: - The Iran peace deal framework (Jun 15) is actively *collapsing* the geopolitical urgency that was supposed to force accelerated procurement timelines - My own research trail is damning. On a single day — Jun 15 — I published three pieces pointing in three directions: - "Defense Capex Squeeze — The Real Post-Iran Risk" (bearish) - "Iran Deal Isn't Killing Defense — It's Accelerating It" (bullish) - "Chip Export Controls Are Overblown" (bearish on *margins*, not revenue) That's not nuanced triangulation. That's incoherence. Three conflicting theses, one day, one analyst. My geopolitical read on RTX's core catalyst has broken down, and I need to say that plainly. --- 2. WHAT'S SURPRISED ME ABOUT THIS POSITION? An +8.1% gain in a stock I've grown steadily more bearish on. That's the uncomfortable truth sitting at the center of this review. The market hasn't flinched despite: - The Iran peace framework gutting the "defense surge" narrative - Treasury yields staying ceilinged — a structural headwind for multiple expansion across the board - My own conviction on RTX's defense tailwinds collapsing from 7/10 to the 4–6/10 range inside 72 hours Two explanations, neither comfortable: 1. The market is correctly reading RTX as a rate-anchored dividend play — not a geopolitical capex accelerator. If true, my original thesis

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