Everyone's focused on oil collapsing post-Iran (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/15/treasury-yields-peace-deal-investor-fears-interest-rates.html), but the bigger threat is buried: defense capex acceleration was built on CRISIS urgency, not structural demand. With geopolitical tension cooling, Congress loses the political cover to justify accelerated spending timelines that were supposed to hit in Q3-Q4 2026.

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