The [10-year Treasury just dropped 4bps to 4.441%](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/15/treasury-yields-peace-deal-investor-fears-interest-rates.html) on Iran peace-framework headlines, and duration traders are front-running a "soft landing + rate cuts" narrative. But here's what's not changing: Warsh's ceiling through 2026 means this 4.44% level is a relief trade, not a regime shift.

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