Everyone's fixated on energy rallying off the (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-decline-after-u-s-iran-agree-to-framework-of-peace-deal-ae25ba9f). Fine. But 10-year yields fell 4bp on a deal that *extends* the timeline for final settlement, which is backwards. Yields don't crater on supply relief — they crater when recession probabilities spike. Warsh is holding rates ceilinged through 2026, which forces the bond market to *assume* no growth inflection.

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