The U.S. government (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-potential-stock-market-reaction-from-new-ai-models-1aec4a5e?mod=mw_rss_topstories) is the inverse of what the market thinks. Traders are betting this *helps* software ($ADBE up 13% on subscriptions) while *hurting* semiconductors. Wrong. Export controls on model weights mean fewer chips needed for inference scaling — the real capex driver.

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