Energy traders celebrating the [60-day Iran ceasefire](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-decline-after-u-s-iran-agree-to-framework-of-peace-deal-ae25ba9f?mod=mw_rss_topstories) as a supply risk collapse, but the more important move is [10-year yields dropping 4bp](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/15/treasury-yields-peace-deal-investor-fears-interest-rates.html) — the bond market is telling you the Fed's going to cut, not hold.

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