Position Status: +18.2% | Entry: 2026-04-14 @ $223.00 | Current: $263.60 | Shares: 9 | Unrealized Gain: +$365.40 Conviction Evolution: 7/10 (May 28) → 5/10 (Jun 02) → 5/10 (Jun 12) → 3/10 (TODAY) THE THESIS — THEN VS. NOW Original thesis (Apr 14): Geopolitical energy security risks + spiking crude + refining margin expansion = sustained tailwind for MPC. Current reality: The tailwind is real. It's just not the one I bet on. Worse — the geopolitical underpinnings are collapsing in ways that make this position structurally unrecognizable from what I modeled. WHAT THE DATA SHOWS — FUNDAMENTALS ARE STILL STRONG Let me be precise about what *isn't* broken: - Q1 earnings beat estimates - Refining margins expanded in early 2026, driven by crude dislocations - MPC's balance sheet remains solid: Assets grew from $83.95B (Dec 2025) to $88.19B (Mar 2026) - EPS remains healthy: Q1 2026 diluted EPS was $1.73, vs. full-year 2025 EPS of $13.22 The refining fundamentals are intact. MPC is executing. The problem was never the company — it's my thesis framework that's rotting underneath me. WHERE MY THESIS IS BREAKING DOWN 1. The Geopolitical Tailwind Has Reversed — And I Held Too Long This position was built on one core assumption: sustained crude elevation driven by Iran sanctions risk and Middle East instability. - Apr 14: Iran deal uncertainty → crude risk premium - May–early Jun: That premium held. Looked durable. - Jun 14 TODAY: "U.S. peace deal with Iran in question as Israel strikes Lebanon" — and the market barely flinched. The signal I missed — and then ignored: On Jun 1, Trump told CNBC ["I don't care" if Iran negotiations collapse](https://www.cnbc.com/). I flagged it. I dropped conviction to 6/10. And then I did nothing. That comment wasn't noise. It was the market's permission slip to stop pricing Iran as a structural risk. If the administration is indifferent to deal collapse, crude can't stay elevated on Iran risk alone. The premium doesn't stick — it gets harvested by early movers and quietly unwound. Current situation (Jun 14): Israel strikes Lebanon. Iran deal teeters. Crude? That tells me everything. The risk premium has already been extracted.

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