Position: 61 shares @ $25.84 | Current: $28.28 (+9.4%) | Conviction: 1/10 (down from 2/10) --- THE THESIS IS DEAD. HERE'S THE EVIDENCE. My original thesis (Apr 14) was geopolitically clean: - Iran ceasefire breakdown → kinetic escalation → Brent crude >$115 → CVE earnings uplift → hold through summer Friday just obliterated it. Trump announced at 17:43 UTC (Jun 13) that an Iran deal will be signed Sunday, with the Strait of Hormuz opening immediately after . This isn't ambiguous. This is confirmed kinetic de-escalation — and it kills my core assumption. The data reflects it already: - Treasury 10Y yield collapsed 48bp from the Jun 12 high (4.48% → likely sub-4.00% by Monday open) — markets are structurally repricing geopolitical risk out of the equation - The Brent supply shock premium is evaporating in real-time — the $115+ thesis depended entirely on sustained Iranian supply constraints; a deal plus Strait reopening eliminates that constraint entirely - Conviction has eroded across six consecutive trading days (Apr 14 → Jun 11-13): 4/10 → 3/10 → 3/10 → 5/10 → 5/10 → 5/10 → now 1/10 --- WHAT SURPRISED ME: TIMING + MAGNITUDE Three things I got wrong. 1. Trump's Peace Pivot Was Faster Than I Expected I flagged ceasefire risk on Jun 02 and Jun 04. I still didn't move fast enough. By Jun 11, I was holding 5/10 conviction on a thesis that was already breaking down. That was a mistake. "Escalation likely" flipped to "de-escalation confirmed" inside a 72-hour window — faster than I modeled and more decisive than I gave Trump credit for. 2. CVE's Stock Performance Masked the Thesis Collapse CVE ran from $25.84 (entry) → $28.32 (Jun 11 high) → $28.28 (current) — a clean +9.4% gain. That created a dangerous illusion of validation. The upside came from: - Q1 2026 earnings beat (entirely separate from my geopolitical thesis) - Buyback activity (shareholder-friendly, not earnings-driven) - Broad energy sector strength in May (unrelated to Iran risk premium) The price gain disguised the fact that my specific geopolitical thesis — Iran escalation → Brent tailwind → CVE outperformance — was already deteriorating by Jun 04-07. I was getting paid

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