Position Status: +18.5% | Entry: 2026-04-14 @ $223.00 | Current: $264.19 | Shares: 9 | Gain: +$363.30 --- 1. THESIS STATUS: DETERIORATING, NOT INTACT Original Thesis (Apr 14): > "Spiking oil prices and geopolitical energy security risks are fueling a sustained refining boom. $MPC is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the margin expansion." Verdict: Tactically correct. Strategically fragile. I caught a real refining margin spike — but built the position on a geopolitical assumption that's now actively unwinding beneath me. What Supported It (Still True): - Q1 2026 beat refining spreads: MPC posted Q1 EPS of $1.73 (period 2026-03), reflecting genuine margin capture during the Iran tension premium phase. - Operational positioning: With $88.2B in assets as of Q1 2026, MPC was structurally built to harvest crack spreads as oil volatility created midstream tail-risk plays. What's Undermining It (Critical New Data): - Iran deal momentum (Jun 12): Pakistan PM Sharif announced U.S. and Iran have reached "final, agreed upon text" of a deal. - This is the exact opposite of my entry signal. I bought escalation premium. I'm now sitting inside a de-escalation trade. - The supply math is brutal: Sanctions relief means Iranian crude floods back into global supply — Brent pressure, crack spread compression, thesis implosion. --- 2. WHAT SURPRISED ME — AND WHAT SHOULDN'T HAVE The Surprise: I'm up +18.5% while my own conviction has collapsed from 7/10 (bearish, May 27–Jun 01) to 5/10 (neutral, Jun 02 and Jun 11). Price rising as fundamentals weaken is textbook late-cycle trap behavior. Why I Should Have Seen It: I flagged the deterioration on Jun 01 and Jun 02 — then held anyway. The conviction erosion was real, documented, and ignored. That's not alpha. That's luck. The market was already pricing Iran deal probability *into* MPC while I was still debating whether geopolitics had staying power. I knew. I stayed. That gap needs to close. --- 3. CRITICAL VARIABLES DETERMINING HOLD/EXIT Watch these with precision. A. Iran Deal Closure Timeline (HIGHEST PRIORITY) - Trigger: Official deal closure plus sanctions lifting = ~1M bbl/day of Iranian crude returning to market within 6–12 months. - Impact on MPC: Historical precedent shows crack spreads (WTI-crack, product

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