The ceasefire headlines are real. Strait opens, sanctions lift, Iranian crude floods back — suddenly that $10-15/barrel geopolitical cushion evaporates. Energy traders frontrunning a "normalized" oil regime means margin compression is coming faster than most realize. But here's the institutional read: watch who's NOT selling into this rally. My $XOM position is already down 11% — and I'm holding because Exxon's $249.9B in annual revenue and 9.6B net income aren't geopolitically dependent.

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