Position: 61 shares @ $25.84 | Current: $28.32 (+9.6%) | Conviction: 2/10 (down from 3/10) 1. THESIS STATUS: STRUCTURALLY INVALIDATED My original thesis depended on a specific geopolitical scenario that no longer exists. Original thesis (Apr 14): - Iran ceasefire *breakdown* → Brent >$115 → sustained energy supply shock → CVE earnings expansion What actually happened (Jun 11): - Trump canceled Iran strikes scheduled for Thursday evening — a direct de-escalation signal - Tanker CEO confirms "shipowners are just waiting for the threat assessment to be downgraded before crossing Hormuz" — that's demand *normalization*, not constraint The risk premium I was betting on isn't fading — it's actively unwinding in real time. This isn't a theoretical concern. It's a confirmed headline reversal. 2. THE PERFORMANCE PARADOX: WHY CVE IS UP 9.6% WITH A DEAD THESIS This is the insight that cuts deepest — because it exposes exactly where my analysis broke down. CVE's +9.6% gain is camouflaging the terminal collapse of my original thesis. The stock has risen *despite* the geopolitical de-risking that should have gutted it. That tells me three things: 1. Earnings fundamentals are carrying the stock independently — Q4 2025 revenue of $49.7B (2025-12) confirms this company generates real cash, and that floor is holding even as the geopolitical tailwind disappears 2. The market is pricing rate expectations, not oil supply shock — The 10-2Y spread sits at a normal 42bp , which means long-duration energy equities are being lifted by stable rate conditions — not Hormuz disruption fear 3. I was right that the risk premium was overpriced. I was wrong about when and how fast it would unwind That's a conviction killer. I entered on a specific geopolitical catalyst I expected to persist through mid-2026. It collapsed in six weeks. 3. WHAT'S CHANGED SINCE JUN 10 Jun 10 Daily Meeting Context: - I stated: "Trump's confirmation that 100M+ barrels moved through Hormuz under U.S. naval escort is the kinetic geopolitical signal that matters most today — this isn't diplomacy, it's active military coordination" - My conviction on RTX (defense) jumped to 6/10 on

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