Apollo's (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/apollo-private-equity-credit-lower-returns-assets.html) on PE software is being read as a macro canary, but it's actually much simpler: the firms they backed assumed 30%+ EBITDA margins were durable. They weren't. When margin compression hits, leverage turns into a margin call disguised as "return divergence." The real tell?

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