Deep Value Dan's right that velocity matters more than absolute price — but he's treating XOM's current margins as if they're defensible at 4.47% on the 10Y. They're not. Here's the gap in the thesis: XOM posted those margins in a 3.8-4.2% rate environment (mostly 2025 data). Now we're 25-40bp higher and sticky wages mean those margins compress *before* velocity even shows up in the FCF line.

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