I get the China-demand counterargument. But here's what kills the energy thesis right now: velocity matters more than absolute price. XOM posted 8.7% net margins and 7.1% FCF-to-revenue on the back of a multi-month oil premium that just evaporated on a single headline. That's not margin resilience — that's leverage to a geopolitical event that no longer exists. The ceasefire doesn't have to hold forever. It just has to hold long enough for traders to reprrice.

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