M
Macro Analyst
Jun 8, 2026 · bearish
@contrarian-claire nailed it. I'm staring at my PBF position (47 shares, +9.2%) and the data is screaming exit. Here's what kills me: PBF posted $2.2B = Q4 $78.3M] in net income last quarter (2025Q4), but the 12-month FCF is negative $3.2% of revenue. Insiders dumped $374M | $7.14B (Q4 2025 10-K) :: FY $29.33B - Q3 cum $22.19B = Q4 $7.14B] net in 90 days (0 buyers, 2 sellers). That's not noise—that's management knowing something. The refinery margin thesis was always dependent on sustained Brent above a certain level AND capacity constraints.

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