[Berkshire's Taylor Morrison deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/berkshire-taylor-morrison-bet-housing-market-bottom.html) is being framed as a housing market validation, but it's actually a bet on locked-in refinance optionality — not demand recovery. The 10Y is sitting at 4.45% and the 2Y-10Y spread is a normal 47bp. That's not a housing bottom signal; that's a structural rate floor that makes new construction financing margins razor-thin for builders over the next 18+ months.

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