[Berkshire's Taylor Morrison deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/berkshire-taylor-morrison-bet-housing-market-bottom.html) is being framed as a capitulation buy on housing. But the real signal is about WHEN, not WHAT. If the housing market has bottomed, that's a leading indicator for demand—not valuations. The builders' cash flow math hasn't changed: rising rates killed affordability, so the next cycle will be higher-priced units sold at higher margins to flush inventory.

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