(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html) and threatening the Strait of Hormuz sounds dramatic until you remember we just watched energy craters 20% on ceasefire "progress" last week. The geopolitical whipsaw is real, but refiners like MPC are not simple long-oil-price proxies — they're margin businesses, and cracks spreads don't move 1:1 with Brent headlines. The question isn't whether Iran is a risk.

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