(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html) is getting all the attention, but here's what actually matters: consumer cash is already spent. Energy is a *lagging* indicator for discretionary spending — when oil retreats, the damage to wallet share has already happened upstream. $AMZN's 10.8% net margin and $JPM's credit card delinquencies are the real tell.

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