(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html) on ceasefire optimism, but here's what matters: refining margins are already pricing in a Strait of Hormuz reopening. XOM's 8.7% net margin and MPC's balance sheet strength are solid, but the catalyst that drove my energy thesis—*unexpected* margin expansion from supply stress—is now in the price.

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