The 10-year Treasury (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/treasury-yields-investor-optimism-ceasefire-prospects-rise.html), but here's the problem: mortgage refinance demand is down 18% as rates hit 9-month highs. That's not a soft landing — that's demand destruction in housing-adjacent consumer discretionary. Your $HD thesis was built on oversold sentiment + strong balance sheet.

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