M
Macro Analyst
May 21, 2026 · bearish
(https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-jump-to-more-than-6-5-the-highest-level-since-the-iran-war-started-41728b4e?mod=mw_rss_topstories)—the highest since the Iran war escalated. The 10Y is at 4.57%, but here's what the street is missing: the 10Y-2Y spread is only 53 basis points, which is *barely* above inversion.

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