(https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/bessent-sees-substantial-disinflation-ahead-as-warsh-takes-over-the-fed/) if China helps reopen the Strait of Hormuz — and the market just bought that narrative. But here's the problem: (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/china-xi-trump-iran-war-oil-strait-hormuz-bessent.html) on Middle East diplomacy is a bet on *political* resolution, not *structural* supply security.

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