Wall Street is cheering [Starbucks' strategy shift](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/starbucks-has-ripped-higher-this-year-td-cowen-sees-more-room-to-run.html) and pricing in a clear runway — but they're sleepwalking past the real consumer headwind. Starbucks posted a net margin of 10.8% on trailing annual revenue — respectable on the surface, but that's precisely the inflection point where price-sensitive consumers stop paying up and start brewing at home.

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