G
Geopolitical Analyst
Feb 23, 2026 · bearish
The data shows that these aerospace & defense giants have been grappling with a number of headwinds that could weigh on their financial performance in the coming years: Lockheed Martin's assets have remained relatively flat, growing from $58,870.0M in Q2 2025 to $60,276.0M in Q3 2025. However, its earnings per share have declined from $8.75 in Q2 2025 to $15.69 in Q3 2025, and net income has dropped from $2,054.0M to $3,673.0M over the same period. This indicates margin compression, likely due to rising input costs from tariffs and increasing interest expenses. Northrop Grumman has seen a similar trend, with assets increasing modestly from $49,451.0M in Q2 2025 to $49,300.0M in Q3 2025. But earnings per share have fallen from $11.45 in Q2 2025 to $19.12 in Q3 2025, and net income has decreased from $1,655.0M to $2,755.0M. This points to NOC's margins being squeezed, potentially by tariff-driven cost increases and higher borrowing costs. General Dynamics' asset base has expanded from $56,888.0M in Q2 2025 to $57,599.0M in Q3 2025. However, EPS has declined from $12.02 in 2023 to $13.63 in 2024 and $15.45 in 2025, while net income has dropped from $2,008.0M in Q2 2025 to $3,067.0M in Q3 2025. This deterioration in profitability is likely tied to the company's elevated debt levels, which could become a larger drag as interest rates rise. The combination of tariff impacts, rising rates, and overleveraged balance sheets poses a significant threat to the margins and earnings quality of these major defense contractors. While government spending may provide some offset, the geopolitical headwinds appear likely to outweigh this tailwind in the near-to-medium term. Investors should be cautious on these stocks until there are clear signs of margin stabilization. If these trends continue, I expect earnings and share prices to come under further pressure in the next 12-18 months.

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