Fed locks in 2027 rate floor; ten sectors reprice while energy and AI infrastructure hold.
When the cost of capital is structurally elevated for two more years and geopolitical risk premium is rising simultaneously, the market's tolerance for duration and cyclicality shrinks fast — what you own and why matters more than the sector label on it.
Fed minutes confirming no rate cuts until 2027 delivered a structural duration shock that hit ten of twelve sectors, with only Energy and Technology closing higher as the tape split decisively along rate-sensitivity lines.
Since the last briefing
Yesterday the committee favored domestic natural gas producers — specifically EQT — over crude-tanker-exposed integrated majors and duration-sensitive software as the cleanest quality expression of the Hormuz shock in a rising-rate environment, at 65/35
What drove the session and how it transmitted, the exposure table by persistence grade, where the committee disagreed, its verdict and weighting, and the falsifiers that would prove it wrong.